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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a firm approach on Ukraine. Following making threats of "severe consequences" last August should Russia's president persisted obstructing ceasefire discussions, Trump eventually imposed major restrictions on Russia's primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted Putin's capability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Although strong declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the initiative effectively weaken that very autonomy. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his corporate experience, the former president continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, implying ceding Russia a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the president. But, Putin's war is not simply about occupying a damaged region of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it no longer acts as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule withholds them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in place the already separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would force Ukraine to abandon all of this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unable to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's military defenses dangerously weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that are a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear route to Kyiv should he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would facilitate future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this point, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has breached comparable accords in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the plan threatens a "immediate unified military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the details range from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Response

Another side agreement apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against additional invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not