Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor
Within the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.
The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will be financially free”.
An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Set aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.
The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims
It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.
Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. The international community may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.