The EU Extends an Invitation to the Ukrainian Nation, But Can It Truly Join?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although leading his country amidst a war, is simultaneously pursuing a dream for peacetime: securing European Union membership for his country as soon as possible.
Ukraine's persistent leader is increasing pressure on European Union member states to speed up the protracted accession process. He frames the collective sacrifice of Ukrainians as a fight "for the nation's future, the prospects for the country inside the European Union."
This dream of 40 million citizens obtaining European status is, in theory, shared by the bloc itself. These days, hardly any gathering in the EU capital concludes without the country's membership being referred to as a "strategic necessity."
Such rhetoric portrays Ukraine's existence and Europe's long-term safety as two sides of the equation. However, for years following the year 2004 "enlargement" that welcomed 10 former Soviet countries, there was zero appetite for additional members, especially not Ukraine. The Russian president's tanks altered the situation entirely – just months of the unlawful 2022 invasion, Ukraine had submitted an application for, and received, "candidate country" standing. A later, EU governments took the historic decision to commence membership negotiations with a nation at war, albeit without a specific deadline. Adjacent the Republic of Moldova, the former Soviet republic feared to be next in Putin's crosshairs, vaulted to the front of the queue together with Ukraine.
Recently, the EU's executive body published its official review of the state of play of 10 aspiring countries, and ranked both nations among the four frontrunners, together with Albania and Montenegro. Kaja Kallas said it was a realistic goal that this quartet might each be in the European Union by 2030.
Ukraine's favorable evaluation is objectively remarkable. Enemy missile attacks are devastating its energy grid regularly, its exchequer is nearly depleted and millions of its people are displaced, metaphorically residing elsewhere of the continent. Its diplomats are often literally in shelters. But, in EU headquarters, representatives are optimistic about the huge modernization effort being undertaken in the capital even with ongoing worries about graft. Details of an alleged corruption case at the nation's state energy operator continue to surface. Nevertheless, they claim, negotiations could be finalized by late 2028. Negotiations with small the Balkan states could be done by 2026 and 2027, respectively.
A Reality Check
There is a sobering contrast: the EU executive cannot determine who gets in. The twenty-seven existing member states hold that power, and they must agree unanimously through every phase. Furthermore, currently, the Union's resident leader Viktor Orbán is obstructing the official opening of negotiations with Ukraine. And because its neighbor is grouped with the larger nation, it also is halted.
All eyes are on the polls in the central European country in April, which unseat the long-serving leader. But some member states with domestic electoral issues may be sheltering behind Hungary. With nationalist groups gaining strength in major European nations and already in government elsewhere, the broader context for the country's acceptance is challenging.
Experts note a discrepancy between rhetorical support and real desires. "I doubt that a lot of countries in the Union truly want the nation to be a member state, for various reasons," says a expert of the process. "Yet it is a tragedy: because the European Union would gain immensely by admitting Ukraine."
What Are the Roadblocks?
A geopolitical case for admitting Ukraine may be increasingly urgent in light of the Kremlin's "hybrid war" on the continent, but given its size and intricacy, so are the political and financial hurdles. Once negotiations are completed, ratification by all the twenty-seven countries – some mandate public votes – is formally necessary for any new accession. And while popular approval for the nation's admission is certainly high in Nordic states, a significant portion across the EU oppose it.
Radical right parties are increasing their influence and some of them are vehemently anti-European and against expansion. With Marine Le Pen's nationalist party potentially headed for power in the French Republic in 2027, a referendum in France on Ukraine's accession would be a struggle. Within pro-expansion countries, there is trepidation about the financial implications at stake, considering the nation's relative poverty and immense rebuilding requirements. A contentious dispute over whether to confiscate billions of immobilized Moscow's funds to bail out Ukraine before it exhausts its funds in the spring is still simmering. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, worry that their agricultural economies will be harmed if the large agricultural producer, a huge farming country and competitor, gains access for agricultural support payments.
Enlargement more broadly, it is worried, could weaken rather than consolidating the EU, unless institutional changes are beforehand carried out to prevent gridlock in a club of 30-something members. However that could take years.
Hearts, Minds and Security Concerns
Representatives in the EU capital may have innovative solutions to the Hungarian leader's veto such as "front-loading", where negotiations could start informally until Hungary's veto is lifted.
Discussions are underway, also, of writing tough new legal guarantees and lengthy probationary phases into new accession treaties to appease doubters. Nobody wants new member states that on paper appear to operate the democratic norms, but who turn out to be "Trojan horses" to the union.
Public relations efforts and "messaging" to win the support of citizens in both the existing countries and the applicant nations are in development. It is clear, however, that raising expectations and then stranding many people in uncertainty indefinitely carries dangers. As the Moldova's president, the pro-European president, who in September defeated Russian interference to score a remarkable pro-European electoral win, warned last week: "If we fail to deliver in the coming years … then what will be the message to the citizens?"
Zelenskyy gave an in-depth interview to stress the dangers of Russia going to war against another European nation before the Ukraine war ends. He also stressed Ukraine's strength at a perilous moment, and his love for his compatriots. "I think that
