Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
