Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
